Thursday, November 10, 2011

Possible change to BCS could dramatically alter BYU's access

Dennis Dodd from recently posted an article about a possible change to the BCS that could dramatically alter BYU's access to the biggest bowls and their discussions about joining the Big East.

Here's a snippet:
There is growing support toward eliminating automatic qualifier status in the next evolution of college football’s postseason... 
Removing AQ status would, in part, continue to benefit the power conferences who are currently bound by a two-team limit in the BCS. But it would also allow so-called non-AQs a more consistent, fair entry into the BCS. No changes would take effect until the 2014 season. 
There are currently 10 slots among the five BCS bowls. One discussed configuration would allow the top 10 teams in the final BCS standings at the end of the season to play in BCS bowls no matter what conference affiliation.
So long Big East.  BYU no longer needs you.  The main reason BYU is in discussions with the Big East is to be part of an AQ conference.  If this change were to occur, BYU has a clear path to a BCS bowl no matter if independent or part of a conference.  Just be in the top 10.

This proposal is fair and makes a lot of sense.  So, the BCS will likely reject it.  However, given the chance it could occur, BYU may want to sit tight in independence until the next BCS changes are announced.

Being independent brings a lot of great things (exposure, money), but it has four main drawbacks:
  1. BCS access: If the above change were to occur, it would eliminate the first drawback. Since BYU hasn't ever finished in the top 10 in the final BCS rankings, it's still a long shot, but at least it's possible.
  2. Scheduling: Especially in November, scheduling is very difficult.  This year, the November schedule is downright awful.  This could improve in future years, with ESPN's help.  It would be great if BYU could play the three other independents (Notre Dame, Army, Navy) each November, when they also need games.  So far, that is not panning out, but it shouldn't be long before we find out the future.  Bronco Mendenhall told KSL this week: "we're about four years out right now with our schedules completed."
  3. Lack of conference race: There's no way around this.  If you are not in a conference, there is no conference race.
  4. Build up to a rival game at the end of the season: As an independent, unless you have another independent as a rival, this is virtually impossible.  Creating a rivalry with Notre Dame could be fun, but it would take time.  Joining the Big East with Boise State could provide a nice year-end rivalry with  a regional flavor.
This brings us back to the conference vs. independence debate.  My previous post "Big 12? Big East? Big Waste of Time?" discussed this topic, and prompted quite a few comments, with a pretty even split among "independencers" and "conferencers".  Here's a follow-up on a one of the comments.
Dustin: How many times would BYU have won a Big East conference without Pitt, Syracuse, and West Virginia?
My comparison was a historical one, against the past Big East teams.  Comparing against a future Big East is pretty hard, since it hasn't been settled which teams will be in the Big East.  However, let's take all the teams mentioned as possible Big East additions and re-calculate.  The teams are:

Current Big East teams that are staying: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida

Potential Big East expansion teams: Air Force, Boise State, Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple, San Diego State, Southern Methodist

Year BYU national rank BYU rank among possible future Big East teams Record of possible future Big East team in that place
2010 58 7 7-5
2009 18 3 10-3
2008 22 3 7-5
2007 17 3 9-3
2006 19 4 7-5
2005 53 5 8-4
2004 49 5 6-5
2003 75 11 5-7
2002 80 9 4-8
2001 22 2 8-4

Better potential records, similar conference standings.

With the madness in college football realignment, there will surely be many more topics to debate in the future.


  1. A fifth potential drawback is recruiting. This is the biggest potential drawback as I see it. Can BYU convince the 'fence-sitters'--the top recruits that are being courted by the PAC 12 (read: Utah) to join an Independent team? I don't know--what does everyone think?

  2. You meant Navy, AF is not Indy. Also in the Big East we would have had a very similar record. Once you play a team two or three times everything else will even out.

    Also we should play Utah every general conference, not Utah state. We should also try and play Boise on Thanks Giving and then try and end up with Notre Dame as the final game of the year whether or not we play in the Big East.

    The Big East west will have familiar foes in Boise State, AF and SDST with Houston and SMU giving us two stops in Texas. That will be great and an occasional trip to Hawaii would not be to bad.

  3. "Just be in the top 10." How is that going to happen with BYU's laughable football schedule?
    I bet ESPN is regretting this contract, because no one is tuning in to watch BYU play Idaho State (insert any other team that BYU plays this season or next here).
    Independence is a disaster for fans. BYU fans have nothing to cheer for because they will still pad enough Idaho State's into the schedule to be bowl eligible and whether they are 11-0 or 6-5 they are going to the Armed Services Bowl. Attendance at tomorrows game will show that even their own fans don't care.

  4. What idiots like Mr3Jack don't realize that putting together an independent schedule on the fly is not an easy process. Sure, this year was not ideal, but under the circumstances (and for all we know) it was the best that could be done within the very restrictive time frame.

    Any "mid-major" program's schedule has essentially been looked at as "laughable", i.e. Boise State, Utah (when in the MWC, not so easy now is it?), TCU, Hawaii as they have been able to break through to the BCS. From who these programs had to play to get there in the past, BYU's schedule next year is pretty decent in comparison:

    September 8 Weber State
    September 15 at Utah
    September 22 at Boise State
    October 5 Utah State
    October 13 Oregon State
    October 20 at Notre Dame
    TBD Hawaiʻi
    TBD Washington State
    TBD at Georgia Tech
    TBD at New Mexico State
    TBD at San Jose State

    So stop showing how stupid you are and stop making any comments on any websites. No one cares about your idiotic opinions.

    BTW: Idaho State wasn't picked up by ESPN, so you don't even know what's going on... unlike the "World Wide Leader" who signed the contract for eight years. They knew it wouln't be easy, but that's why its for that long, you idiot.

  5. I would agree that Mr3Jack doesn't know what he is talking about. How is it horrible for a fan like me (who lives in CA) who either had to pay a lot of money to direcTV to see the game or else couldn't even see it no matter the cost. I was able to downgrade to basic cable and got to see every game this year. That would be a plus for fans.
    Scheduling, yeah this year isn't great but we still played 4 BCS teams (Ole Miss, Texas, Utah and OSU) Heck, you I would consider TCU a 5th as they will be BCS next year. Dude, we have never played that many BCS teams in years past. Add in fun/rivalry games of USU, UCF and Hawaii and it's fine. We only played 4 true patsies but how is that different than UNLV, UNM, CSU and SDSU?
    Calm down. The ideal schedule only has 2 top tier teams, 2 crappy BCS teams, 2 rivals and the rest patsies. Look around, that's how it is done in D1 college football.